Skip to main content
The dispatch
Issue #12 2026-05-10 Sundays only

Calibration is the new ranking.

Every threshold in Magistry is anchored to your own distribution. The math, the stability gates, and why self-calibrating beats global rules — even when global rules are right on average.

A global rule that's right on average is wrong for almost every specific store. This week's dispatch is about why every threshold in Magistry is calibrated to your own distribution, and why 'right on average' is a trap.

The average store doesn't exist

A ROAS floor of 2.0 might be the population mean. But your store has a margin structure, a repeat rate, and an acquisition mix that the mean ignores. Apply the average and you starve your winners or scale your losers — sometimes both at once.

Ranking tells you the order. Calibration tells you the threshold. The threshold is where the money is.

Self-calibration isn't a luxury feature; it's the difference between an agent that acts on your reality and one that acts on a podcast's. Stability gates keep the calibrated thresholds from chasing noise — they move on sustained signal, not a single good day.

// three links we sent

  • A primer on probability calibrationaround the web
  • Meta's docs on value-based biddingdevelopers.facebook.com
  • A teardown of 'best practice' ROAS rulesaround the web

// one ship

Per-collection ROAS floor overrides

Calibrate a floor for a single collection without touching the rest.

See the changelog

// the dispatch

Get this Sunday's issue.

Subscribe and the next dispatch lands at 09:00 local this Sunday. Operator essay, three ecosystem links, ship of the week. That's it.

Sundays only · One-click unsubscribe · No tracking pixels